Hillary's Survival Rests With A Miracle Drive Or An Obama Fumble
With Hillary Clinton on the brink of elimination, with most giving her a slim chance of survivng this slugfest with her chief rival Barack Obama, my experiences living in Cleveland, Ohio, and watching the Cleveland Browns during their ill-fated seasons during the 1980’s, conjures up memories that the New York senator's electoral hope hinges on two scenarios, painful scenarios all too familiar to native Clevelanders: ``The Drive'' and ``The Fumble''
Scenario One: The Drive: With only six primaries left, including Kentucky, West Virginia, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana, and Puerto Rico, Mrs. Clinton is backed up to the two-yard line, deep in her own territory, much like John Elway and the Denver Broncos were on January 11, 1987 during the AFC championship game, down 23-13 with less than six minutes and the gusts of the Lake Erie wind swirling in their face.
Most football fans know what happened: Elway pulled a rabbit out of his hat, in front of 79,915 fans gathered at Cleveland Municipal Stadium as he sliced his way down field with a few short dinks, throwing other off-balance completions while scrambling for his life, picking up another 20 yards with his own two feet, heaving a bullet to Mark Jackson for a 20-yard completion; and another dart to Jackson in the end-zone with only 37 ticks remaining in regulation to send the game into overtime, and stunning the Browns after Rich Karlis punched through a 33-yard field goal with five minutes and 48 seconds in overtime.
Such an unforgettable comeback could give Clinton a burst of momentum, to set the stage for a similar comeback, if she wins in West Virginia on May 13, which she is expected to win easily, but a contest which only awards 39 delegates. But with that momentum-setter under her belt, it might send a message to voters in the remaining states, she’s still kicking, at least enough to chip away at Obama in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, all states the Illinois senator is favored to win with a combined total of 112 delegates. Clinton is favored in Kentucky and Puerto Rico with another 123 delegates at stake.
With Mr. Obama holding to a 1,588.5 to 1425.5 delegate lead, according to a preliminary Associated Press count, neither Obama nor Mrs. Clinton will have enough delegates to push them over the top. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination. So all Clinton needs is strong showings, or at least better-than-expected performances to cause superdelgates to question whether Obama might have a little too many nicks in his armor to successfully oppose John McCain, the presumptive nominee, in the general election
But time is running against Clinton. Bloomberg reports, since January 3rd, when Mrs. Clinton had double the support of superdelagtes compared to her opponent, with Mr. Obama picking up endorsement from five additional superdelagates on Saturday, he has now surpassed Clinton, giving him a narrow 277 to 274.5 superdelagate lead.
Clinton’s future under this setting, then, rests a with a quick and decisive win in West Virginia on Tuesday to keep the drive alive, some fancy footwork and a long completion in Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th, and an impressive offensive in Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd, to send this footrace into overtime, where the superdelagates will be forced to settle this at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.
Highly improbable, I grant you, but miracles do happen.
Scenario Two: The Fumble: The other scenario holds that the only way Mr. Obama can be denied the nomination this late in the game and so close to crossing the goal line, is by his own blunder or misstep, much like the Browns did in the 1987 AFC championship game in Denver at Mile High Stadium, when Cleveland running back Earnest Byner, on the verge of going in for the go-ahead score with 1:05 remaining in a drive that started back at their own 25 yard-line with 3: 53 left, was stripped of the ball by Broncos cornerback Jeremiah Castille at the one-yard line, enabling the Broncos to hold on to a 38-33 thriller in Denver and claim their second AFC championship in a row.
Again, this situation, while highly unlikely, is not exactly out of the realm of possibilities, considering how quickly Obama’s star faded after his publication relations meltdowns with Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s inflammatory comments, his association with radical Weather Underground terrorist William Ayers, and his relationship with real estate developer Tony Rezko, who was involved in a highly publicized $ 7 million kickback scheme.
So, many political pundits are wondering, and Team Clinton is certainly hoping there might be other time bombs hidden below the surface, just waiting to go off that could strip the Illinois senator of the nomination, just as he’s on the verge of going in for the winning score.
Carl Bernstein writing on CNN’s website is even picking up whispers from insiders within the Clinton camp, who still cling to a glimmer of hope that some disastrous revelations might come out, that would inflict some damaging information about Obama and deny him the nomination.
While these developments are obviously remote, miracle drives and inexplicable collapses do happen; just when one side is about to soak in the bubbly and claim victory, the unexpected has been known to damper anticipated celebrations.
Just ask Cleveland Browns fans.
Bill Lucey
billlucey@bellsouth.net
Scenario One: The Drive: With only six primaries left, including Kentucky, West Virginia, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana, and Puerto Rico, Mrs. Clinton is backed up to the two-yard line, deep in her own territory, much like John Elway and the Denver Broncos were on January 11, 1987 during the AFC championship game, down 23-13 with less than six minutes and the gusts of the Lake Erie wind swirling in their face.
Most football fans know what happened: Elway pulled a rabbit out of his hat, in front of 79,915 fans gathered at Cleveland Municipal Stadium as he sliced his way down field with a few short dinks, throwing other off-balance completions while scrambling for his life, picking up another 20 yards with his own two feet, heaving a bullet to Mark Jackson for a 20-yard completion; and another dart to Jackson in the end-zone with only 37 ticks remaining in regulation to send the game into overtime, and stunning the Browns after Rich Karlis punched through a 33-yard field goal with five minutes and 48 seconds in overtime.
Such an unforgettable comeback could give Clinton a burst of momentum, to set the stage for a similar comeback, if she wins in West Virginia on May 13, which she is expected to win easily, but a contest which only awards 39 delegates. But with that momentum-setter under her belt, it might send a message to voters in the remaining states, she’s still kicking, at least enough to chip away at Obama in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, all states the Illinois senator is favored to win with a combined total of 112 delegates. Clinton is favored in Kentucky and Puerto Rico with another 123 delegates at stake.
With Mr. Obama holding to a 1,588.5 to 1425.5 delegate lead, according to a preliminary Associated Press count, neither Obama nor Mrs. Clinton will have enough delegates to push them over the top. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination. So all Clinton needs is strong showings, or at least better-than-expected performances to cause superdelgates to question whether Obama might have a little too many nicks in his armor to successfully oppose John McCain, the presumptive nominee, in the general election
But time is running against Clinton. Bloomberg reports, since January 3rd, when Mrs. Clinton had double the support of superdelagtes compared to her opponent, with Mr. Obama picking up endorsement from five additional superdelagates on Saturday, he has now surpassed Clinton, giving him a narrow 277 to 274.5 superdelagate lead.
Clinton’s future under this setting, then, rests a with a quick and decisive win in West Virginia on Tuesday to keep the drive alive, some fancy footwork and a long completion in Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th, and an impressive offensive in Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd, to send this footrace into overtime, where the superdelagates will be forced to settle this at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.
Highly improbable, I grant you, but miracles do happen.
Scenario Two: The Fumble: The other scenario holds that the only way Mr. Obama can be denied the nomination this late in the game and so close to crossing the goal line, is by his own blunder or misstep, much like the Browns did in the 1987 AFC championship game in Denver at Mile High Stadium, when Cleveland running back Earnest Byner, on the verge of going in for the go-ahead score with 1:05 remaining in a drive that started back at their own 25 yard-line with 3: 53 left, was stripped of the ball by Broncos cornerback Jeremiah Castille at the one-yard line, enabling the Broncos to hold on to a 38-33 thriller in Denver and claim their second AFC championship in a row.
Again, this situation, while highly unlikely, is not exactly out of the realm of possibilities, considering how quickly Obama’s star faded after his publication relations meltdowns with Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s inflammatory comments, his association with radical Weather Underground terrorist William Ayers, and his relationship with real estate developer Tony Rezko, who was involved in a highly publicized $ 7 million kickback scheme.
So, many political pundits are wondering, and Team Clinton is certainly hoping there might be other time bombs hidden below the surface, just waiting to go off that could strip the Illinois senator of the nomination, just as he’s on the verge of going in for the winning score.
Carl Bernstein writing on CNN’s website is even picking up whispers from insiders within the Clinton camp, who still cling to a glimmer of hope that some disastrous revelations might come out, that would inflict some damaging information about Obama and deny him the nomination.
While these developments are obviously remote, miracle drives and inexplicable collapses do happen; just when one side is about to soak in the bubbly and claim victory, the unexpected has been known to damper anticipated celebrations.
Just ask Cleveland Browns fans.
Bill Lucey
billlucey@bellsouth.net
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